Betting Tips

Chris Weidman v Ronaldo Souza Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Chris Weidman v Ronaldo Souza Betting Tips & Predictions

UFC 230 is confirmed offering a promising fight between Chris Weidman v Ronaldo Souza. It will take place against the lavish backdrop of Madison Square Gardens in the American fighting city of New York on Saturday 3rd November. UK fans will be able to follow the late-night action live on BT Sports.

Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis battle it out for the heavyweight title in a top-of-the-bill tussle that has everyone talking. Two weight champion DC is expected to come through that test victorious and if the fight follows the thinking of bookmakers, the 39-year-old from Louisiana will do so quite comfortably, an early night predicted.

As well as a stunning main event, fans of mixed martial arts also have varied and intriguing supporting acts with 50/50 match-ups on the Main Card and Preliminary Card. Not every bout will be shown live on TV; however, bookmakers have ensured you can have your say on each and back your predictions with hard cash. This is a sport all about opinions and how strongly you value yours.

The Main Card is made up of four middleweight contests, as well as Cormier: Lewis at heavyweight; with Chris Weildman vs Ronaldo Souza; David Branch vs Jared Connonier; Karl Robertson vs Jack Marshman and Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya. By the end of the night we’ll have a clear picture of what direction the division is heading in.

We have already previewed the main event elsewhere and that’s worth reading over before making your bets on the evening, but we couldn’t leave it at that. The undercard is so interesting and has so many sub-plots going on we simply had to get involved.

What Happened to Luke Rockhold?

One fixture that jumped off the page at us was the Chris Weidman vs Ronaldo Souza match at middleweight. This bout is a change to the advertised billing that promised Weidman would lock-horns Luke Rockhold in a much-anticipated rematch.

So what happened to former ruler of the division Rockhold?

The 6ft 3inch from California, specialising in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Kickboxing, Wrestling and Judo, recorded an important win over Weidman on UFC 194 in December 2015; he walked away with the middleweight title. Following hard-fought rounds, Weidman went for the spectacular but mis-timed a wheel kick and was made to pay the price.

Rockhold seized the advantage, taking his opponent to the floor before delivering an ugly ground and pound. It had the desired effect, although not instantly. Chris was stopped in the fourth following another barrage of heavy shots.

He missed the chance to repeat the feat three years later when forced to pull out due to a catalogue of injury problems. Fans were left distraught at the call-off; unfortunately, it was unavoidable and it remains to be seen what kind of shape Luke will return in.

Attentions Turn to Souza

A change of opponent was needed and Weidman’s attentions now turn to Ronaldo Souza; the fight is expected to start around 03:00 GMT. 34-year-old local lad Weidman brings a fighting CV showing 14 wins from 17 starts: six by knockout, four by submission with the same number of points decision victories. Each of the three losses on his card have all come inside the distance; that’s worth remembering if looking to oppose.

The 6ft 2inch former middleweight champion fighting out of Baldwin, New York, is skilled in Wrestling, Kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu; he’s ranked as a black belt in the latter. Despite his overall form, Weidman has struggled in recent starts and came in for criticism from many fans after suffering three TKO defeats on the spin, something that made him question his love for MMA.

First he suffered that loss to Rockhold on the undercard of Aldo – McGregor; then, he went on to fall short vs Yoel Romero, beaten by a flying knee. Finally there was Gerard Mousasi, with another knee doing the damage that night.

He made an emotional return to winning ways last summer; he fired back to beat Kelvin Gastelum in a top-of-the-bill tussle, an Arm Triangle the key to victory. Speaking to fans post-match, he talked of the importance of having a thick skin in a tough sport and thanked his family for their continued support. Anyone watching that interview will testify to the winner’s desire and determination to succeed and that spirit will be key to any success at Madison Square Gardens.

Chris Priced as Betting Favourite

Bookmakers have him backed, but despite the change of opponent, they resist the urge to go all in on Chris pulling off another win that’ll be so important for his career. Perhaps keeping that three-fight losing run in mind, odds-makers at Bet365 have him as 4/7 jolly. That is, of course, convincing but it’s not a bad quote when put alongside the 8/15 you’ll find elsewhere.

Supporters of Weidman after a bigger price can play the method of victory market. There’s more work involved here, but the prizes are greater and well worth the risk. Take Weidman to win and call how he’ll do it – KO, submission or decision. If you’re feeling super confident, and just a little cocky, you could even shoot for the exact round market where there are some big offers laid out.

Can Souza Spoil the Party?

Ronaldo Souza may be the underdog, but he carries plenty of bite into this one. He certainly has more than enough talent to inflict a fourth career defeat on his opponent, regardless of what the bookies say going in. Like big-time boxing, the odds in UFC are always a good indication of how a bout may go, but this is the fight game and it can turn on the spin of a coin.

There’s no such thing as a sure-fire winner at this level of MMA. We’ve seen plenty of upsets over the years that prove us right on that one. Souza and his team will know it too.

The 6ft 1inch Brazilian, nicknamed Jacare (Alligator), has experience to call on from Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Judo, Muay Thai and Submission Wrestling. So, more than enough in his armoury to keep him right. Also, the 38-year-old, fighting out of Amazonas, has battled his way to a 25-6 record with one no contest on the list.

Of his 25 wins he has achieved seven by knockout, 14 by submission and four on the scorecards. Interestingly, half of his six defeats have come by KO. That means we have two fighters in the octagon with experience of knocking their opponents out, but also of being stopped themselves. All the ingredients for a thrilling contest.

Ronaldo Lost Last Time

Souza was last seen dropping a split decision to Kelvin Gastelum back in May of this year on UFC 224. Despite that, it was a memorable scrap and the pair enjoyed fight of the night status. With that featuring in their thinking, those who create the betting have Ronaldo chalked up at 6/4 second-fav, top price when getting your stake money on at Bet365.

A nice price, but we don’t expect it to attract too much attention as we build towards the opening round. We’d much prefer to have our money on Weidman to continue his trek along the comeback trail with an inside-the-distance win at decent odds. Enjoy the show.

Don’t forget to check out our other top tips and odds. Also, take a look out our MMA betting strategy guide.