Betting Tips

Brian Carlos Castano v Erislandy Lara Betting Tips & Predictions

It’s time for our Brian Carlos Castano v Erislandy Lara betting tips. It’s the first weekend in March and the boxing season begins to gather pace with shows of note taking place across the globe, including Britain and America. The Barclays Center in Brooklyn stages the best of Saturday’s action as Brian Carlos Castano and Erislandy Lara do battle over 12 rounds to decide the WBA super welterweight title.

This top-of-the-bill tussle has won the attentions of fight fans but its only one leg of a star-studded bill which includes a fascinating heavyweight contest pairing Luis Ortiz and Christian Hammer, while Ricardo Nunez and Eduardo Ramirez meet in the super featherweight division.

With a sell-out audience in attendance, and millions watching the live TV coverage around the world, bookmakers have raised the bar to offer hundreds of exciting betting markets, giving us the chance to mark the occasion with a winning bet. Have your say on the winner of each of the major fights and build an accumulator or be a bit bolder in your approach and predict the method of victory. There’s more of a price available here but you’ll be made to work for it as backers must predict both who will win the bout and how they’ll achieve it – points or knockout.

El Boxi Defending Champion

Argentinian fighter Brian Carlos Castano arrives at the venue with the WBA strap tucked away in his luggage. Will it be boarding a plane with him back to his Buenos Aires base at the conclusion of this one? The 29-year-old orthodox boxer brings a professional record of 15 wins from as many starts with 11 of those victories coming inside the distance.

El Boxi made his debut back in 2012 when stopping Alejandro Dominguez (1-2-0) in round four of a bout scheduled for six and the victor got the taste for winning early. So much so we claimed his first two by stoppage and nine of his first 10 before the final bell. That gained him a reputation of a fearsome fighter and handlers found him hard to match, although no one could stop his rise to the top of the division. Castano won the WBA title in November 2016 when stopping Emmanuel de Jesus (17-1-0) in round six and has made two successful defences since.

Traders Not Interested

The first of those came via a split decision win over Frenchman Michel Soro at Evian les Bains last summer before halting Cedric Vitu in the last of a dozen in Boulogne-Billancourt last March. That form may be eye-catching on paper, but it hasn’t done a lot to impress odds compilers who have priced a successful defence up as second favourite.

Punters eager to support the champion will find him available at 9/4, top price when getting your stake money down at Ladbrokes. That’s sure to attract the attention of value hunters, those who like to take advantage of selections priced bigger than they should be. With three of Castano’s last four wins coming inside the distance, the KO/TKO looks to be his best chance and that will give supporters a shot at a bigger price.

Lara Lost Last Time

American-based Cuban Erislandy Lara comes into this fight with a record of 25 wins against three defeats and a couple of draws but he was beaten last time meaning this bout doubles as a last chance for the 35-year-old to prove he belongs back at the top table of boxing. He brings bags of experience and possesses the skills to hold his own against the division’s elite, but his best days look to be behind him and a split decision loss to Jarrett Hutt last year left his career hanging in the balance, his future remaining unclear.

Lara’s three losses have come at the hands of Paul Williams in 2011 when edged on a majority decision, having drawn with Carlos Molina the start before. He then ended on the wrong side of the result when beaten by Saul Alvarez in 2014 at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Many with a love for the sport thought he did enough to upset Canelo that night, but the final scores returned 113-115, 111-117, 115-113, one judge giving it to Lara, two going for the Mexican. With a majority decision and split decision defeat on his card, Erislandy then lost another split to Hurd, 114-113, 113-114, 113-114 showing just how close the bout was.

American Dream Fancied

The challenger would be forgiven for letting that painful loss get to him, but he has bounced back, got himself fit and looks ready to climb back on the horse. A win here wouldn’t delete the decision from memory, but it would go some way to getting him back on track, opening doors for what could be an important year – titles on the line and money to be made before calling it a day.

Bookies are keen to support The American Dream and punters adopting the same strategy can back him for the win at 2/5 with Bet365. That shows the confidence the money men have in Lara and we think we deserves it. Each of his last two have gone the 12-round distance and another points win is our best bet. The risk with that bet, however, is Lara is still feeling the pain from that narrow points decision last time and may go looking for the KO to take it out of the judges’ hands.

Unique Situation

Here we have the unique betting situation of having an unbeaten champion who isn’t favourite to retain his crown. That will be enough to ensure there’s interest in the upset, but Lara has been around the block a few times and that can’t be ignored. Castano will have a career full of success but at this stage, Lara is the more experienced fighter and that will make all the difference when this one gets into the latter rounds. We just can’t bring ourselves to bet against a fighter who went extremely close to beating Saul Alvarez, certainly not at this level of boxing.

As we already mentioned, Erislandy deserves credit for sticking with the sport after losing a third fight by a wafer-thin margin. With a bit more luck he could be entering this bout as an undefeated man with some big scalps hanging from his belt. If that was the case, we certainly wouldn’t be getting anywhere near 2/5 (bet365) on him winning. That price looks about fair but there’s still enough there to merit a place in our weekend accumulators.

Lara on Points

Those after a bit more of a price should follow the clues and take Lara to win on points, hoping the judges are finally on his side. With his form suggesting a points win is the best bet, and the fact Castano went into the 12th round in each of his last two, it’s a punt that makes perfect sense to us. If you’d prefer a bit more of a safety net, we’d advise betting on the bout to go the distance.

With that punt it doesn’t matter who has their hand raised at the end, as long as we hear the final bell. That should keep you involved into the latter rounds, although there’s a chance it could spoil your enjoyment of the night as you look away while big punches are being landed.

Good luck if following our selections and be sure to keep our boxing page bookmarked as we bring you all the big fights of 2019 from the UK and abroad. Our professional tipsters have a long history of hurting the bookies.

Our Tip: Lara to win – 2/5 at Bet365

Don’t forget to check out our other top betting tips and best boxing betting strategies