ITV continues to bring us big-time boxing and the sport’s return to terrestrial TV has been met with joy from followers as they’ve been able to watch some of the best fights from around the globe all for free. The only Pay-Per-View event run so far this year was James DeGale v Chris Eubank Jr and that was probably the least exciting. Here are our top Errol Spence v Mikey Garcia betting tips.
We get another free-to-air classic from America this weekend as Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia clash in a massive bout at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington in the early hours of Sunday morning, the first bell expected to sound around 4.00am GMT. A late one for armchair fans but we can assure you this will be well worth setting your alarm for and the sparks will fly from the start.
It’s part of an action-packed card which includes Chris Arreola, Charles Martin, and David Benavidez. You can add a bit more interest to the occasion with a winning bet and bookmakers offer the chance to pick which fighter will come out on top in each leg, or you can aim for a bigger pay-out by playing one of the many specials, including method of victory.
Our team of boxing judges and sports betting experts have previewed the main event and come back with their thoughts on how you should approach this 12-round contest that will decide the short-term future of the IBF welterweight world title.
Garcia Looking for 40
Mikey Garcia will arrive at the venue on fight night looking to take his professional record to a perfect 40. The Californian will duck between the ropes with a CV showing 39 wins from as many starts and he has claimed 30 of those victories by way of knockout. The 31-year-old is one of the hottest properties in the game today but will face his toughest test to date in the form of Spence. Will he come through unscathed and confirm his place as a pound-for-pound king?
Garcia scored a famous victory over fellow countryman Adrian Broner in Brooklyn back in the summer of 2017 when the vacant WBC Diamond title was on the line and that result won him many friends, especially amongst those who believe AB is bad news. He won that contest by a wide points margin, sailing to a 116-112, 117-111, 116-112 scorecard. Little trouble that night but it is worth remembering that bout took place at super lightweight which is a division down the pecking order from this one. Will the difference tell against a naturally stronger man?
Treat Against Easter
The form fighter boxed a treat against Robert Easter last time out. He won on points again that evening, but totally dominated his opponent in Los Angeles, dropping him to the canvas in the third round with the IBF and WBC at lightweight which is two divisions below welterweight. That’s quite astonishing and reminds us of Kell Brook’s move up two tiers to face Gennady Golovkin. It doesn’t happen too often, and the gamble pays off on just a few occasions.
Bookmakers don’t expect it to come good for Garcia here and despite a 39-0-0 record and a 77% KO average, he has been written off by the money men and you’ve got to imagine that is down to the weight difference. Backers who are happy to disregard that can back Mikey at an eye-catching 3/1 with Bet365. There’s more to be had in the method of victory market and another points cheer is 4/1 with the same firm, the knockout priced an unlikely 14/1, top price when betting with Bet365.
Spence the Stronger Man
Errol Spence doesn’t boast the same experience as the man starting in the opposite corner and he has 15 fights fewer on his record but he also shapes as an unbeaten gladiator and arrives with a proud record reading 24 wins from 24 starts. No less than 21 of his victories to date have come inside the distance and that’s tallied as a fearsome 88% KO average, something that will weigh heavy on the mind of his opponent in the run-up to this one.
The 29-year-old southpaw from Texas is the naturally stronger man of the two involved here as he has spent the bulk of his career campaigning at 147lbs and that should show when both step foot into the ring. The reason for that is Spence must shed weight to get down to the welterweight limit, before rehydrating and piling the pounds back on in the 24 or more hours between stepping on the scales and going into the ring. All the time Garcia is bulking and adding muscle just to get himself up to the minimum allowed.
Run of Knockout Wins
Spence is on a run of knockout wins and that started in 2014 when stopping Noe Bolanos in two rounds. He went on to cut down each of the next eight placed in front of him, including Kell Brook in 11 at Bramall Lane and Lamond Peterson in seven in Brooklyn. Errol was last spotted dealing with Carlos Ocampo before the end of the first round before an appreciative audience in Frisco in June of last year when defending the IBF gong.
The money men fully expect to see Spence score again and the pre-match betting has it as a case of how he will win, rather than if. Those looking to stick with the jolly in the pre-match betting will have to make do with Coral’s 1/4 as there’s not a lot better out there to be had, some as tight as 2/9. Another knockout is fav in the method of victory market at 11/10 – top price with Bet365 – the points verdict 13/8 with the same firm.
Garcia will Hold His Own
This is a fascinating fight and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a share of the pre-bout cash come for Garcia. On paper, he is the better fighter, with more experience and the most impressive record of the two but looks beyond the plain stats and you’ll see why oddsmakers have thrown their support behind Errol Spence. He’s a good size for the welterweight division and will, by all accounts, be taking on a man who belongs in a lighter category.
It always seems strange to see a fighter dominate one division before moving up to a higher rank but to see Garcia jump two divisions is a bit of a shock and this should be a mismatch. Having said that, Garcia is a talented boxer and will know enough to keep out of trouble in the early part of the contest. There’s no value in backing Spence and little to be had taking him to win by KO/TKO as bookies already have it picked, but there is a decent price to be had. Back Spence to win in rounds 7-9 at 9/2. A strong quote and backers should get a run for their money.
Other Markets
Other markets from the specials worth a note are the fight to go the distance yes even money against no at 10/11. The total number of rounds is over 7.5 at 4/11 or under 7.5 at 2/1. The draw is always a threat in the big fights, of course, and you can take an interest bet on the level finish at a chunky 25/1, top price with Ladbrokes.
Our Tip: Errol Spence to win in rounds 7-9 – 9/2 at Bet365