[Yesterday 2:04 PM] Alessandro Guiotto
Tennis betting is on for the year – with the first Grand Slam of the year being the Australian Open in 2019 – and the top players all looking for a good year. Djokovic will be looking for a repeat of last year, where he had a stonking year – while Andy Murray will be looking to go out with a bang – having confirmed that he will be retiring after Wimbledon, due to ongoing injury problems.
Then we have Serena Williams who is back in the saddle after having a baby – and solidifying her rise back to the top after the birth of her baby, but with rivals such as Kerber trying to outplay her. This year is set to be very exciting – and we have the odds to go with them. Check out our page the best odds for the top tournaments for the top markets
Like in every sport, the odds will determine how much a bettor will gain stand to gain from a successful and correctly predicted wager. Throughout the world, the tennis odds are generally represented as either fractional odds, decimal odds, or moneyline odds. However, in the UK, fractional odds tend to be more popular.
When betting, no matter how knowledgeable you are, making a successful bet is never an exact science. Human error happens, and unexpected results are part and parcel of any sport. However, what is certain – if you pick the right place to make your bet and get the right odds, you’ll make the best profit.
So, if your unfamiliar with tennis betting odds, let’s look at what they mean. So, a player is given odds of 1/3 – what does that mean? Well – the odds are the implied probability of the win – we can work it out in the following way:
1 (numerator) / 3 (denominator)
The equation is:
Denominator / (denominator / numerator) x 100 = implied probability :-
3 / (3+1) x 100 =
0.75 x 100 = 75%
So, the implied probability is 75%…. the oddsmakers believe that the chance of the player winning is 75%. If you know the implied probability, you have more chance of success.
So, how does that convert to money? Well, if you put your money on a player with odds of 1/3 and your bet comes in, what would you win? Well – the denominator is the amount of money you have to bet to get the numerator as a profit i.e. if you bet £3 on a player with 1/3 odds, you’d get £4 back – your £3 bet plus your £1 profit. So, fractional odds = profit/stake.
Therefore, if you were to bet £15 on our player at 1/3, you would get a £5 profit. Not too bad!
If there is a tennis match where one player is going in on a run of great wins and as favourite; he then beats a top player, such as Federer, he’ll likely get odds to win such as 1/4 in a final against a player of a lesser calibre. If you placed a £20 bet on him to win, you’d get a profit of just £5.
Looking at the odds, it appears that bookies think that chance of his winning would be 80%.
Then there’s the opposition… he’s been playing great tennis and beating other top players to make it to the final. However, because he’s going up against the favourite, and someone he’s lost to on several occasions, he’s been given odds of 5/1.
A good tipster might sense that there could be an upset on the cards. This player might not have beaten the favourite previously; however, to get to the finals, he had to take out players that he hadn’t beaten previously – and managed it. He may also have a game more suited to the type of court.
Following the advice of the tipster, if you put £20 on the underdog, you would end up winning £100 – a much better profit line than the £5 return of the favourite. However, bookies believe that the underdog has just a 16.6% chance of winning…so would it be worth the risk? Well. If you look at the evidence and believe that he has more chance than he has been given credit for, then it’s a value bet and is worth a punt.
Firstly, bet only if there is value. If you believe there is more chance of a win than the odds suggest, it’s a bet worth taking.
Try and specialise in something. There are so many different matches and tournaments taking place that it’s difficult to analyse all matches enough for an effective wager. Focus on one area – i.e men’s tennis or women’s tennis, Grand Slams or the Challengers Circuit. Pick a speciality and study it.
Have more than one bookmaker’s account. One bookie account will limit you and your choice of markets and odds. If you have a number to choose from, you will likely maximize your odds and profit potential.
It’s all about money management. The best way to do this is by keeping a record of your bets – include date, tournament, bookie, stake, odds, profit/loss and comments. You can then analyse your overall performance – patterns in where you profit and patterns in your losses for future reference.
Check out the seeding. Seeds generally will always be regarded as favourites over the unseeded players. However, you can do a little research and see which seeded player isn’t on form and are likely to suffer an upset.
Think about service and return. When betting live stream it’s best to understand the intricacies of serving and returning. Serving is the only time in the game when the immediate outcome is solely in the hands of the player. The best servers are likely to have an 80% chance of winning their service point. Conversely, there are great returners. Get a great returner against a weak server and it’s very different.
Understand Playing Styles. Check out their style on replays. Find out whether the player is a big server, a baseliner, a strong returner, a forehand player or backhand player.
Look at Head-to-Heads. Check out the head-to-head stats of your player and their opponent. Check out how many times they’ve faced off, the results etc.
Think about what the surface is and how good a player’s record is on that court. Some players are favourites on one surface but struggle more on other court surfaces. However, some players are great on every court.